MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AND STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Cyprian Okey Okoro

Abstract


The study investigates the effect of selected macroeconomic factors on stock market performance in Nigeria as represented by Nigeria Stock Exchange. The study used five macroeconomic factors or variables including Gross Domestic Product, Money Supply, Interest rate, Inflation rate and exchange rate as explanatory variables while stock market performance obtained by converting All Share Index to stock returns was used as the dependent variable. The data for the study were obtained from CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2015 edition for the period spanning 1986 to 2015. The Ordinary Least Square regression technique was employed for data analysis. The results indicated that a combination of Gross Domestic Products, money supply, interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate could not be used to predict performance of the stock market in Nigeria.  The study, thus, concludes that stock prices is not a leading indicator of macroeconomic variables in Nigeria and that movements in stock prices cannot actually be explained by macroeconomic factors.The study recommended that firms should focus on improving their profitability so as to attract more investors. By so doing they would be able to maximize the value of their firms. Furthermore, future empirical investigations should focus on finding out the best macroeconomic variables that impact positively on stock market performance in Nigeria.


Keywords


Nigeria, stock markets, macroeconomic variables, All Share Index, Arbitrage Pricing Theory

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References


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